{
  "title": "Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2012",
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  "summary": "Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research focus and methodology",
      "content": "- Objective: Gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers on Pacific Island countries (PICs).\n- Method: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimated for each PIC.\n- Scope: Analysis of growth spillovers and financial-sector spillovers from a deterioration of the global outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and empirical results",
      "content": "- Regional integration of PICs with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades.\n- PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles.\n- Spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than spillovers from advanced economies outside the region.\n- While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks.\n- The VECM analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock.\n- The paper also assesses spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers.\n- PICs should implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Authors: Yiqun Wu, Patrizia Tumbarello, Niamh Sheridan\n- Publication date: June 1, 2012\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2012/154\n- Issue: 154\n- Pages: 41\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504491.001\n- ISBN: 9781475504491\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects: Balance of payments, Banking, Commercial banks, Commodities, Extra-budgetary funds, Financial institutions, Financial sector policy and analysis, Public financial management (PFM), Remittances, Spillovers\n- Keywords: Australia and New Zealand, business cycle, Commercial banks, commodity, commodity exporter, commodity importer, commodity price, commodity prices, downside scenarios, Extra-budgetary funds, Global, IMF staff calculation, Pacific island country, Pacific islands, PIC importer, Remittances, spillover, Spillovers, WP\n- Stock No: WPIEA2012154\n- Volume: 2012\n\nSource: \"Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries\", IMF Working Papers, accessed via https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/global-and-regional-spillovers-to-pacific-island-countries-25994\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp12154 - Executive Summary\n  - wp12154 - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp12154 - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/global-and-regional-spillovers-to-pacific-island-countries-25994"
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    "Authors: Yiqun Wu, Patrizia Tumbarello, Niamh Sheridan",
    "Published: June 1, 2012",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504491.001",
    "Objective: Gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers on Pacific Island countries (PICs).",
    "Method: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimated for each PIC.",
    "Scope: Analysis of growth spillovers and financial-sector spillovers from a deterioration of the global outlook.",
    "Regional integration of PICs with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades.",
    "PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles.",
    "Spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than spillovers from advanced economies outside the region.",
    "While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks.",
    "The VECM analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock.",
    "The paper also assesses spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook.",
    "PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers.",
    "PICs should implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth.",
    "Authors: Yiqun Wu, Patrizia Tumbarello, Niamh Sheridan",
    "Publication date: June 1, 2012",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2012/154",
    "Issue: 154",
    "Pages: 41",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504491.001",
    "ISBN: 9781475504491",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects: Balance of payments, Banking, Commercial banks, Commodities, Extra-budgetary funds, Financial institutions, Financial sector policy and analysis, Public financial management (PFM), Remittances, Spillovers",
    "Keywords: Australia and New Zealand, business cycle, Commercial banks, commodity, commodity exporter, commodity importer, commodity price, commodity prices, downside scenarios, Extra-budgetary funds, Global, IMF staff calculation, Pacific island country, Pacific islands, PIC importer, Remittances, spillover, Spillovers, WP",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2012154",
    "Volume: 2012",
    "**_wp12154 - Executive Summary**"
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