{
  "title": "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2011",
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  "summary": "Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Research question: Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process?\n- Methodology: Analysis based on a VAR framework.\n- Principal findings:\n  - The U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery.\n  - France plays an important role for the European crisis countries.\n  - Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing.\n  - Germany likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries.\n  - Spain generated positive spillovers prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, but is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand.\n  - Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analysis and interpretation",
      "content": "- Spillover sources and transmission:\n  - Systemic non-European economies (U.S. and Japan) are primary external drivers of growth spillovers during the recovery period analyzed.\n  - Within Europe, France has significant outward influence for crisis-hit countries, while Germany’s role is more as a conduit/amplifier of external shocks rather than a large standalone source of outward spillovers.\n- Country-specific dynamics:\n  - Spain’s role shifted from being an important positive spillover origin before 2008 - 09 to generating negative spillovers during the recovery, linked to depressed domestic demand.\n  - The limited negative spillovers from European crisis countries reflect their modest size in the global economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject areas: Exports, Financial crises, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, Negative spillovers, Production, Production growth, Spillovers\n- Keywords: Crisis, EMU country, Euro zone, Europe, Exports, financial crisis, GDP growth, Germany, Global, Growth, growth rate, growth shock, Negative spillovers, originating country, Production growth, Recovery, spillover effect, Spillovers, third-country effect, transmission mechanism, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp11218\n  - wp11218 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp11218 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/growth-spillover-dynamics-from-crisis-to-recovery-25249"
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    "Authors: Hélène Poirson, Sebastian Weber",
    "Published: September 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463903510.001",
    "Research question: Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process?",
    "Methodology: Analysis based on a VAR framework.",
    "Principal findings:",
    "Spillover sources and transmission:",
    "Country-specific dynamics:",
    "Subject areas: Exports, Financial crises, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, Negative spillovers, Production, Production growth, Spillovers",
    "Keywords: Crisis, EMU country, Euro zone, Europe, Exports, financial crisis, GDP growth, Germany, Global, Growth, growth rate, growth shock, Negative spillovers, originating country, Production growth, Recovery, spillover effect, Spillovers, third-country effect, transmission mechanism, WP",
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