## Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery

_IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2011_

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**Canonical URL:** [Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/growth-spillover-dynamics-from-crisis-to-recovery-25249)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hélène Poirson, Sebastian Weber
- Published: September 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463903510.001

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### Summary and main findings
- Research question: Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process?
- Methodology: Analysis based on a VAR framework.
- Principal findings:
  - The U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery.
  - France plays an important role for the European crisis countries.
  - Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing.
  - Germany likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries.
  - Spain generated positive spillovers prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, but is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand.
  - Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

### Analysis and interpretation
- Spillover sources and transmission:
  - Systemic non-European economies (U.S. and Japan) are primary external drivers of growth spillovers during the recovery period analyzed.
  - Within Europe, France has significant outward influence for crisis-hit countries, while Germany’s role is more as a conduit/amplifier of external shocks rather than a large standalone source of outward spillovers.
- Country-specific dynamics:
  - Spain’s role shifted from being an important positive spillover origin before 2008 - 09 to generating negative spillovers during the recovery, linked to depressed domestic demand.
  - The limited negative spillovers from European crisis countries reflect their modest size in the global economy.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject areas: Exports, Financial crises, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, Negative spillovers, Production, Production growth, Spillovers
- Keywords: Crisis, EMU country, Euro zone, Europe, Exports, financial crisis, GDP growth, Germany, Global, Growth, growth rate, growth shock, Negative spillovers, originating country, Production growth, Recovery, spillover effect, Spillovers, third-country effect, transmission mechanism, WP

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/growth-spillover-dynamics-from-crisis-to-recovery-25249_