{
  "title": "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 17, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/growth-surprises-and-synchronized-slowdowns-in-emerging-marketsan-empirical-investigation-41923",
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  "summary": "Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs.\n- Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters.\n- The paper investigates main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Empirical drivers identified",
      "content": "- External factors:\n  - Lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13.\n  - Changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth (no role identified in the period studied).\n- Domestic factors:\n  - The withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of weaker external demand.\n- Idiosyncratic factors:\n  - Structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion seem to partly explain these events.\n  - These idiosyncratic effects are reflected in larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and interpretation",
      "content": "- Policy attention should consider both external demand weakness (trading partner demand) and domestic fiscal policy shifts (withdrawal of post-Lehman stimulus) when explaining post-2011 EM slowdowns.\n- Idiosyncratic structural constraints warrant country-specific diagnosis given their contribution to residual growth shortfalls in regression estimates."
    },
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      "heading": "Publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Authors: Ghada Fayad, Roberto Perrelli\n- Date: September 17, 2014\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2014/173\n- Issue: 173\n- Volume: 2014\n- Pages: 24\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498335836.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2014173\n- ISBN: 9781498335836\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subject areas: Emerging and frontier financial markets; Exchange rate arrangements; Financial crises; Financial markets; Foreign exchange; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Output gap; Production\n- Keywords: debt profile; EM Europe; EM recovery; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Emerging market; emerging market economy; Exchange rate arrangements; financial crisis; fiscal policy; Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; growth deceleration; growth slowdown; growth surprise; growth surprises; Output gap; trading partners; trading partners’ demand; WP\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper \"Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation\" by Ghada Fayad and Roberto Perrelli, September 17, 2014.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp14173\n  - wp14173 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp14173 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/growth-surprises-and-synchronized-slowdowns-in-emerging-marketsan-empirical-investigation-41923"
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    "Authors: Ghada Fayad, Roberto Perrelli",
    "Published: September 17, 2014",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498335836.001",
    "Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs.",
    "Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters.",
    "The paper investigates main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis.",
    "External factors:",
    "Domestic factors:",
    "Idiosyncratic factors:",
    "Policy attention should consider both external demand weakness (trading partner demand) and domestic fiscal policy shifts (withdrawal of post-Lehman stimulus) when explaining post-2011 EM slowdowns.",
    "Idiosyncratic structural constraints warrant country-specific diagnosis given their contribution to residual growth shortfalls in regression estimates.",
    "Authors: Ghada Fayad, Roberto Perrelli",
    "Date: September 17, 2014",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2014/173",
    "Issue: 173",
    "Volume: 2014",
    "Pages: 24",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498335836.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2014173",
    "ISBN: 9781498335836",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subject areas: Emerging and frontier financial markets; Exchange rate arrangements; Financial crises; Financial markets; Foreign exchange; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Output gap; Production",
    "Keywords: debt profile; EM Europe; EM recovery; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Emerging market; emerging market economy; Exchange rate arrangements; financial crisis; fiscal policy; Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; growth deceleration; growth slowdown; growth surprise; growth surprises; Output gap; trading partners; trading partners’ demand; WP",
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