{
  "title": "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2011",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-does-trade-evolve-in-the-aftermath-of-financial-crises-24553",
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  "summary": "We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with impo",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- There is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis—19 percent, on average.\n- The decline in imports is persistent: imports recover to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years.\n- Exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected and remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and methodology",
      "content": "- Sample: 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009.\n- Empirical approach: augmented gravity model."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Banking crises, Econometric analysis, Exports, Financial crises, Gravity models, Imports, International trade\n- Keywords: Banking crises, crisis dummy, crisis t, exchange rate, exporter crisis indicator, Exports, financial crises, Global, Gravity models, importer-exporter dummy, importer-exporter-year observation, Imports, pair dummy, trade, trade dynamics, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1103 - Appendix 1. Data Sources\n  - wp1103 - Appendix 1. Data Sources (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1103 - Appendix 1. Data Sources (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-does-trade-evolve-in-the-aftermath-of-financial-crises-24553"
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  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-does-trade-evolve-in-the-aftermath-of-financial-crises-24553/index.md)",
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    "Authors: Abdul d Abiad, Petia Topalova, Prachi Mishra",
    "Published: January 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455211814.001",
    "There is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis—19 percent, on average.",
    "The decline in imports is persistent: imports recover to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years.",
    "Exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected and remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term.",
    "Sample: 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009.",
    "Empirical approach: augmented gravity model.",
    "Subject: Banking crises, Econometric analysis, Exports, Financial crises, Gravity models, Imports, International trade",
    "Keywords: Banking crises, crisis dummy, crisis t, exchange rate, exporter crisis indicator, Exports, financial crises, Global, Gravity models, importer-exporter dummy, importer-exporter-year observation, Imports, pair dummy, trade, trade dynamics, WP",
    "**_wp1103 - Appendix 1. Data Sources**"
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