## How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

_IMF Working Papers, October 1, 2011_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Philippe Bracke
- Published: October 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463921316.001

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### Research question and scope
- Examines the duration of house price upturns and downturns over the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries.
- Provides two complementary sets of results: average length and length distribution of housing cycle phases.

### Key findings
- On average, upturns are longer than downturns.
- The average difference between upturn and downturn length disappears once the last house price boom is excluded.
- In terms of length distribution:
  - Upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases.
  - This observed duration dependence for upturns is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

### Concepts and terminology emphasized
- Duration Dependence
- Upturn equation; downturn equation
- Business cycles; Housing Cycles
- House price upturn; house price downturn
- Housing prices; Inflation; interest rate
- National accounts; Prices

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-long-do-housing-cycles-last-a-duration-analysis-for-19-oecd-countries-25271_