## Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America

_IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2011_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yongzhen Yu
- Published: April 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455226023.001

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### Overview
- Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical.
- High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade.
- The urbanization and industrialization of China have been important factors behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth.
- China's export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst.
- Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals.
- Over the next five years, Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates.
- In the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down.
- For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.

### Key Findings and Projections
- Commodity price dynamics:
  - Major mining commodity prices are described as inherently volatile and cyclical.
- Drivers of demand in China:
  - High levels of investment.
  - Urbanization and industrialization increasing domestic demand.
  - Export sector acting as a catalyst for growth.
  - Sectoral contributors: infrastructure, construction, real estate, automobile manufacturing.
- Medium-term outlook:
  - Chinese demand is expected to remain strong over the next five years, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates.
  - Possibility of a slowdown in China’s economic growth in the second part of this decade.
- Implications for Latin America:
  - Export receipts for Latin American countries should remain strong over the next five years and beyond due to continued strong demand from China.

### Subject Areas and Keywords
- Subject: Commodities, Consumption, Copper, Exports, Imports
- Keywords: China, commodity, consumer spending, demand, import, price, WP

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/identifying-the-linkages-between-major-mining-commodity-prices-and-chinas-economic-growth-24803_