{
  "title": "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2007",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Scope and data",
      "content": "- Focus: factors influencing countries' participation in IMF drawing programs (periods of Stand-By Arrangement or Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund).\n- Exclusions: precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track.\n- Sample: developing, non-PRGF eligible countries.\n- Frequency and period: quarterly data during the period 1982-2005.\n- Evaluation: out-of-sample forecast evaluation for the period 2004-5."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- Principal determinants identified:\n  - Country-specific variables: net international reserves and GDP growth.\n  - Global factor: world GDP growth.\n- Temporal variation in global factor importance:\n  - The influence of world GDP growth appears to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises.\n  - The influence of world GDP growth does not appear significant since the Mexican crisis in 1994.\n- Forecast performance:\n  - An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Conceptual and methodological notes",
      "content": "- Definition emphasis: by defining IMF drawing programs as active borrowing periods within Stand-By Arrangements or Extended Fund Facilities, the analysis aims to link determinants more closely to the evolution of IMF credit outstanding.\n- Sample restriction: analysis concentrates on developing countries that are not PRGF eligible, aligning the inference with that country group.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp07152\n  - Wp07152 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp07152 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti",
    "Published: July 1, 2007",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867169.001",
    "Focus: factors influencing countries' participation in IMF drawing programs (periods of Stand-By Arrangement or Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund).",
    "Exclusions: precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track.",
    "Sample: developing, non-PRGF eligible countries.",
    "Frequency and period: quarterly data during the period 1982-2005.",
    "Evaluation: out-of-sample forecast evaluation for the period 2004-5.",
    "Principal determinants identified:",
    "Temporal variation in global factor importance:",
    "Forecast performance:",
    "Definition emphasis: by defining IMF drawing programs as active borrowing periods within Stand-By Arrangements or Extended Fund Facilities, the analysis aims to link determinants more closely to the evolution of IMF credit outstanding.",
    "Sample restriction: analysis concentrates on developing countries that are not PRGF eligible, aligning the inference with that country group.",
    "**Wp07152**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Wp07152",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07152.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07152.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07152.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T15:54:51.085Z"
}