## IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting

_IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2007_

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**Canonical URL:** [IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti
- Published: July 1, 2007
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867169.001

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### Scope and data
- Focus: factors influencing countries' participation in IMF drawing programs (periods of Stand-By Arrangement or Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund).
- Exclusions: precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track.
- Sample: developing, non-PRGF eligible countries.
- Frequency and period: quarterly data during the period 1982-2005.
- Evaluation: out-of-sample forecast evaluation for the period 2004-5.

### Key empirical findings
- Principal determinants identified:
  - Country-specific variables: net international reserves and GDP growth.
  - Global factor: world GDP growth.
- Temporal variation in global factor importance:
  - The influence of world GDP growth appears to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises.
  - The influence of world GDP growth does not appear significant since the Mexican crisis in 1994.
- Forecast performance:
  - An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

### Conceptual and methodological notes
- Definition emphasis: by defining IMF drawing programs as active borrowing periods within Stand-By Arrangements or Extended Fund Facilities, the analysis aims to link determinants more closely to the evolution of IMF credit outstanding.
- Sample restriction: analysis concentrates on developing countries that are not PRGF eligible, aligning the inference with that country group.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/imf-drawing-programs-participation-determinants-and-forecasting-21110_