{
  "title": "Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 12, 2014",
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  "summary": "We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Study of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010.\n- The degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts.\n- Individual-level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line with “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002).\n- There are cross-country variations in information rigidity, but no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methods and technical focus",
      "content": "- Econometric analysis comparing average versus individual forecast behavior.\n- Emphasis on estimation techniques and measures of rigidity, including references to:\n  - rigidity coefficient\n  - smoothing parameter\n  - OLS estimator\n  - standard deviation\n- Use of real-time data vintage and forecast revision analysis.\n- Keywords highlighting methodological and theoretical orientation: aggregation bias, density estimate, Estimation techniques, forecast behaviour, forecast data, forecast revision, growth forecasts, information rigidity, Public expenditure review, Rational expectations, Rational inattention, WP."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Interpretations and theoretical implications",
      "content": "- Evidence supports models with frequent updating at the individual forecaster level (noisy information frameworks) rather than the sticky information model.\n- Aggregation amplifies observed information rigidity: average forecasts display substantially higher rigidity than underlying individual forecasts.\n- Cross-country heterogeneity exists, but advanced versus emerging economy classification does not systematically explain differences in rigidity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Relevance and subject classification",
      "content": "- Subjects: Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Estimation techniques, Expenditure, Public expenditure review, Rational expectations.\n- Practical relevance for researchers and policymakers interested in forecast behavior, forecast revision dynamics, and the implications of aggregation for perceived information rigidity.\n\nIMF Working Papers — Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel (Working Paper No. 2014/031).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Microsoft Word - WP Rigities Forecasters.docx\n  - Microsoft Word - WP Rigities Forecasters.docx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Microsoft Word - WP Rigities Forecasters.docx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/information-rigidities-comparing-average-and-individual-forecasts-for-a-large-international-41350"
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    "Authors: Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa",
    "Published: February 12, 2014",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001",
    "Study of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010.",
    "The degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts.",
    "Individual-level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line with “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002).",
    "There are cross-country variations in information rigidity, but no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.",
    "Econometric analysis comparing average versus individual forecast behavior.",
    "Emphasis on estimation techniques and measures of rigidity, including references to:",
    "Use of real-time data vintage and forecast revision analysis.",
    "Keywords highlighting methodological and theoretical orientation: aggregation bias, density estimate, Estimation techniques, forecast behaviour, forecast data, forecast revision, growth forecasts, information rigidity, Public expenditure review, Rational expectations, Rational inattention, WP.",
    "Evidence supports models with frequent updating at the individual forecaster level (noisy information frameworks) rather than the sticky information model.",
    "Aggregation amplifies observed information rigidity: average forecasts display substantially higher rigidity than underlying individual forecasts.",
    "Cross-country heterogeneity exists, but advanced versus emerging economy classification does not systematically explain differences in rigidity.",
    "Subjects: Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Estimation techniques, Expenditure, Public expenditure review, Rational expectations.",
    "Practical relevance for researchers and policymakers interested in forecast behavior, forecast revision dynamics, and the implications of aggregation for perceived information rigidity.",
    "**Microsoft Word - WP Rigities Forecasters.docx**"
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