{
  "title": "Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 27, 2013",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/information-rigidities-in-economic-growth-forecasts-evidence-from-a-large-international-panel-40358",
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  "summary": "We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Study examines behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010.\n- Main findings:\n  - Evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts.\n  - Empirical evidence is more in line with implications of \"noisy\" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003).\n  - Information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies.\n  - There is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing; nonlinearities are less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and methods (as described)",
      "content": "- Panel of individual forecasts for real GDP growth covering 30 advanced and emerging economies.\n- Sample period: 1989–2010.\n- Key methodological references: sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002); noisy information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003).\n- Keywords and technical terms used: ABB estimator, data set, Estimation techniques, expectations, forecast, forecast data, horizon-indicator function, information, information rigidity, Rational expectations, real-time data vintage, rigidity coefficient, WP."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Authors and publication",
      "content": "- By Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa\n- Publication date: February 27, 2013\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2013/056\n- Issue: 056\n- Volume: 2013\n- Pages: 24\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475562958.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2013056\n- ISBN: 9781475562958\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nIMF Working Paper — Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel\n  - Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/information-rigidities-in-economic-growth-forecasts-evidence-from-a-large-international-panel-40358"
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    "Authors: Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa",
    "Published: February 27, 2013",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475562958.001",
    "Study examines behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010.",
    "Main findings:",
    "Panel of individual forecasts for real GDP growth covering 30 advanced and emerging economies.",
    "Sample period: 1989–2010.",
    "Key methodological references: sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002); noisy information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003).",
    "Keywords and technical terms used: ABB estimator, data set, Estimation techniques, expectations, forecast, forecast data, horizon-indicator function, information, information rigidity, Rational expectations, real-time data vintage, rigidity coefficient, WP.",
    "By Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa",
    "Publication date: February 27, 2013",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2013/056",
    "Issue: 056",
    "Volume: 2013",
    "Pages: 24",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475562958.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2013056",
    "ISBN: 9781475562958",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel**"
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