## Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel

_IMF Working Papers, February 27, 2013_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa
- Published: February 27, 2013
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475562958.001

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### Summary and main findings
- Study examines behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010.
- Main findings:
  - Evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts.
  - Empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003).
  - Information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies.
  - There is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing; nonlinearities are less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.

### Data and methods (as described)
- Panel of individual forecasts for real GDP growth covering 30 advanced and emerging economies.
- Sample period: 1989–2010.
- Key methodological references: sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002); noisy information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003).
- Keywords and technical terms used: ABB estimator, data set, Estimation techniques, expectations, forecast, forecast data, horizon-indicator function, information, information rigidity, Rational expectations, real-time data vintage, rigidity coefficient, WP.

### Authors and publication
- By Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia T. Tamirisa
- Publication date: February 27, 2013
- Series: Working Paper No. 2013/056
- Issue: 056
- Volume: 2013
- Pages: 24
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475562958.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2013056
- ISBN: 9781475562958
- ISSN: 1018-5941

*IMF Working Paper — Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/information-rigidities-in-economic-growth-forecasts-evidence-from-a-large-international-panel-40358_