{
  "title": "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2008",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/is-it-still-mostly-fiscal-determinants-of-sovereign-spreads-in-emerging-markets-22477",
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  "summary": "Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of main findings",
      "content": "- Study uses a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007.\n- Both fiscal and political factors matter for country credit risk as measured by sovereign bond spreads.\n- Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads.\n- Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults.\n- The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and methodology (as described)",
      "content": "- Panel dataset covering 30 emerging market economies.\n- Time period: 1997 to 2007.\n- Sovereign bond spreads used as the measure of country risk premiums.\n- Analysis contrasts with previous studies by explicitly accounting for political factors alongside fiscal variables."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Fiscal consolidation can reduce sovereign spreads, with stronger effects in countries with prior defaults.\n- Emphasize the quality and composition of fiscal policy: maintain sustainability while allocating spending to public investment to help lower spreads.\n- Political risk reduction (improvements in political stability/credibility) can tighten sovereign spreads and complement fiscal measures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key publication facts and technical identifiers (from the content)",
      "content": "- Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Amine Mati, Emanuele Baldacci\n- Publication date: November 1, 2008\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2008/259\n- Pages: 23\n- Volume: 2008\n- Issue: 259\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871173.001\n- ISBN: 9781451871173\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nIMF Working Paper by Sanjeev Gupta, Amine Mati, and Emanuele Baldacci (November 1, 2008).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Descriptive Statistics\n  - 1. Descriptive Statistics (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Descriptive Statistics (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/is-it-still-mostly-fiscal-determinants-of-sovereign-spreads-in-emerging-markets-22477"
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    "Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Amine Mati, Emanuele Baldacci",
    "Published: November 1, 2008",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871173.001",
    "Study uses a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007.",
    "Both fiscal and political factors matter for country credit risk as measured by sovereign bond spreads.",
    "Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads.",
    "Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults.",
    "The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.",
    "Panel dataset covering 30 emerging market economies.",
    "Time period: 1997 to 2007.",
    "Sovereign bond spreads used as the measure of country risk premiums.",
    "Analysis contrasts with previous studies by explicitly accounting for political factors alongside fiscal variables.",
    "Fiscal consolidation can reduce sovereign spreads, with stronger effects in countries with prior defaults.",
    "Emphasize the quality and composition of fiscal policy: maintain sustainability while allocating spending to public investment to help lower spreads.",
    "Political risk reduction (improvements in political stability/credibility) can tighten sovereign spreads and complement fiscal measures.",
    "Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Amine Mati, Emanuele Baldacci",
    "Publication date: November 1, 2008",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2008/259",
    "Pages: 23",
    "Volume: 2008",
    "Issue: 259",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871173.001",
    "ISBN: 9781451871173",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**1. Descriptive Statistics**"
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