{
  "title": "J-Curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2011",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/j-curve-of-productivity-and-growth-indian-manufacturing-post-liberalization-25029",
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  "summary": "Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s. This has puzzled analysts, given that 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Title: J-Curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization\n- Authors: Arvind Virmani, Danish A Hashim\n- Publication date: July 1, 2011\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/163\n- Issue: 163"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s.\n- This slowdown is puzzling because 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points.\n- The paper tests the hypothesis of the J curve of Productivity and Growth following major liberalization and finds it to be broadly supported by the data.\n- Mechanisms identified as producing negative effects on measured productivity:\n  - Technological obsolescence\n  - Gradual adoption of new technology\n  - Learning by doing"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Interpretation and implications",
      "content": "- The J-curve hypothesis: major liberalization can lead to an initial decline in measured productivity before gains materialize, due to the combined effects of obsolescence, adoption lags, and learning processes.\n- Measured productivity can decline even as longer-term growth-enhancing forces from reforms are present, implying timing and measurement issues are critical for assessing reform outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Economic sectors, Labor, Manufacturing, Production, Production growth, Productivity, Total factor productivity\n- Keywords: aggregate manufacturing, capital goods, capital stock, cotton textiles consumer products, Economic reforms, fixed capital, Global, Indian manufacturing, industry composition, J-curve hypothesis, Manufacturing, output growth, petroleum product, petroleum refinery, petroleum refinery industry, plastic product, private sector, Production growth, Productivity, productivity & output growth, productivity differential, productivity growth, productivity slowdown, productivity spurt, productivity-enhancing effect, services productivity, technology-productivity incentive, Total factor productivity, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp11163\n  - wp11163 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp11163 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/j-curve-of-productivity-and-growth-indian-manufacturing-post-liberalization-25029"
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    "Authors: Arvind Virmani, Danish A Hashim",
    "Published: July 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455298730.001",
    "Title: J-Curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization",
    "Authors: Arvind Virmani, Danish A Hashim",
    "Publication date: July 1, 2011",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2011/163",
    "Issue: 163",
    "Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s.",
    "This slowdown is puzzling because 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points.",
    "The paper tests the hypothesis of the J curve of Productivity and Growth following major liberalization and finds it to be broadly supported by the data.",
    "Mechanisms identified as producing negative effects on measured productivity:",
    "The J-curve hypothesis: major liberalization can lead to an initial decline in measured productivity before gains materialize, due to the combined effects of obsolescence, adoption lags, and learning processes.",
    "Measured productivity can decline even as longer-term growth-enhancing forces from reforms are present, implying timing and measurement issues are critical for assessing reform outcomes.",
    "Subject: Economic sectors, Labor, Manufacturing, Production, Production growth, Productivity, Total factor productivity",
    "Keywords: aggregate manufacturing, capital goods, capital stock, cotton textiles consumer products, Economic reforms, fixed capital, Global, Indian manufacturing, industry composition, J-curve hypothesis, Manufacturing, output growth, petroleum product, petroleum refinery, petroleum refinery industry, plastic product, private sector, Production growth, Productivity, productivity & output growth, productivity differential, productivity growth, productivity slowdown, productivity spurt, productivity-enhancing effect, services productivity, technology-productivity incentive, Total factor productivity, WP",
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