## Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

_IMF Working Papers, December 23, 2016_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/lost-and-found-market-access-and-public-debt-dynamics-44498)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/lost-and-found-market-access-and-public-debt-dynamics-44498/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/lost-and-found-market-access-and-public-debt-dynamics-44498/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea F Presbitero, Antonio Bassanetti
- Published: December 23, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563207.001

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### Overview and main argument
- Authors: Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea F Presbitero, Antonio Bassanetti
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2016/253, Issue 253
- Date: December 23, 2016
- Pages: 34
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563207.001
- ISBN: 9781475563207
- ISSN: 1018-5941

- The empirical literature identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key predictor of debt defaults and sovereign market access.
- The paper argues that the debt-to-GDP level, while theoretically and empirically justified, should not be the only fiscal metric used to assess the relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access.
- In a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio is shown to play a critical role for market access.

### Key empirical findings
- Given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with:
  - a lower probability of debt distress/market loss, and
  - a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.
- The paper emphasizes the importance of debt dynamics (the trajectory and change over time of the debt-to-GDP ratio) in addition to debt levels when assessing sovereign debt sustainability and market access.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject areas: Debt default, Debt sustainability, Debt sustainability analysis, External debt, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Public debt
- Keywords: Debt default, debt distress, debt dynamics, debt ratio, Debt Sustainability, Debt sustainability analysis, Default, distress episode, Fiscal Crises, Fiscal stance, Global, International Capital Markets, market, market access, market loss, WP

### Publication and access metadata
- Series: Working Paper No. 2016/253
- Volume: 2016
- Stock No: WPIEA2016253

*Source: IMF Working Paper "Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics", Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea F Presbitero, and Antonio Bassanetti, December 23, 2016.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/lost-and-found-market-access-and-public-debt-dynamics-44498_