## Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname

_IMF Working Papers, July 10, 2014_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-appropriate-fiscal-targets-and-optimal-consolidation-paths-for-resource-rich-41736)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Daniel S Kanda, Mario Mansilla
- Published: July 10, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498364614.001

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### Overview
- Authors: Daniel S Kanda, Mario Mansilla
- Publication date: July 10, 2014
- Core objective: Quantify natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position; assess the fiscal sustainability gap in that context; present models for the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
- Scope: Fiscal sustainability and optimal consolidation for a resource-rich, commodity-exporting economy (Suriname).

### Main findings and substantive points
- The paper quantifies natural resource wealth of Suriname specifically in terms of its impact on the fiscal position.
- It assesses the fiscal sustainability gap taking natural resource wealth into account.
- It presents models addressing the optimal fiscal consolidation path given:
  - the outlook for natural resource wealth,
  - macroeconomic conditions,
  - country authority preferences.

### Modeling approach and analytical themes
- Topics and technical elements explicitly featured:
  - baseline projection
  - commodity exporter context
  - constraint method
  - discount rate
  - Fiscal stance and Fiscal Sustainability
  - Fiscal Targets
  - gold price and price projection
  - Natural Resource Wealth and Non-renewable resources
  - Output gap and sustainability gap
  - Optimal Fiscal Consolidation

### Policy implications and recommendations (as framed by the paper)
- Design fiscal consolidation paths that account for:
  - projected natural resource wealth trajectories,
  - prevailing macroeconomic conditions,
  - the preferences and objectives of country authorities.
- Use model-based assessment to quantify the fiscal sustainability gap and to set appropriate fiscal targets for resource-rich countries.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-appropriate-fiscal-targets-and-optimal-consolidation-paths-for-resource-rich-41736_