## Modeling Inflation in Chad

_IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2011_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Modeling Inflation in Chad](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-inflation-in-chad-24705)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-inflation-in-chad-24705/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-inflation-in-chad-24705/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-inflation-in-chad-24705/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Tidiane Kinda
- Published: March 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455221011.001

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### Summary
- Examines determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3.
- Analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence.
- Main determinants identified: rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending.
- Persistence of effects:
  - Rainfall shocks: persist during six quarters.
  - Changes in foreign prices: persist during six quarters.
  - Changes in public spending: affect inflation during three quarters.
  - Changes in the nominal exchange rate: affect inflation during four quarters.

### Methodology
- Data frequency and sample: quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3.
- Models used:
  - Single-equation model to identify determinants.
  - Structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model to capture inflation persistence.

### Key Findings and Statistics
- Determinants of inflation: rainfall; foreign prices; exchange rate movements; public spending.
- Persistence durations:
  - Rainfall shocks — six quarters.
  - Foreign prices — six quarters.
  - Public spending — three quarters.
  - Nominal exchange rate — four quarters.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Modeling Inflation in Chad; by Tidiane Kinda; IMF Working Paper 11/57; March 1, 2011**
  - [Modeling Inflation in Chad; by Tidiane Kinda; IMF Working Paper 11/57; March 1, 2011 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/_wp1157.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Modeling Inflation in Chad; by Tidiane Kinda; IMF Working Paper 11/57; March 1, 2011 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/_wp1157.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/modeling-inflation-in-chad-24705_