{
  "title": "Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2008",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/much-ado-about-nothing-estimating-the-impact-of-a-u-s-21984",
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  "summary": "External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices.",
  "authors": [
    "Shekhar Aiyar",
    "Ivan Tchakarov"
  ],
  "publishDate": "2008-05-01",
  "series": "IMF Working Papers",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007.\n- WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices.\n- While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination.\n- Authors: Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov\n- Date: May 1, 2008"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- The paper uses a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings and Projections",
      "content": "- A 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008—relative to the baseline forecast—could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.\n- External demand dynamics in 2006 and 2007 were central to Thai growth; projected moderation in 2008 foreign demand is a material risk factor."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Exchange rates, Inflation, Output gap, Real exchange rates, Real interest rates\n- Keywords: monetary policy, Phillips curve, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp08140\n  - wp08140 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp08140 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/much-ado-about-nothing-estimating-the-impact-of-a-u-s-21984"
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    "Authors: Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov",
    "Published: May 1, 2008",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451869989.001",
    "External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007.",
    "WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices.",
    "While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination.",
    "Authors: Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov",
    "Date: May 1, 2008",
    "The paper uses a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth.",
    "A 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008—relative to the baseline forecast—could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.",
    "External demand dynamics in 2006 and 2007 were central to Thai growth; projected moderation in 2008 foreign demand is a material risk factor.",
    "Subject: Exchange rates, Inflation, Output gap, Real exchange rates, Real interest rates",
    "Keywords: monetary policy, Phillips curve, WP",
    "**_wp08140**"
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