{
  "title": "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2009",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/index.md",
  "summary": "Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research objective and approach",
      "content": "- Aim: Model macroeconomic consequences of different sources of oil price changes within a new Keynesian DSGE framework.\n- Scope: Models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to identify accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms.\n- Shock types analyzed:\n  - oil supply shock\n  - aggregate demand shock\n  - precautionary oil demand shock"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Different sources of oil price fluctuations produce remarkably diverse outcomes for both the small open economy and the rest of the world.\n- The paper emphasizes that analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first investigating the distinct sources of these changes and their distinct effects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, publication, and metadata",
      "content": "- Authors: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz D Unsal\n- Publication date: December 1, 2009\n- Pages: 28\n- Volume: 2009\n- Issue: 285\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2009/285\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2009285\n- ISBN: 9781451874303\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects: Inflation, Labor productivity, Oil, Oil prices, Public enterprises\n- Keywords: equilibrium mark-up, government spending shock, oil price inflation, oil price shock, price of oil, price volatility, WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical emphasis for policymakers and researchers",
      "content": "- Distinguish between supply-driven, demand-driven, and precautionary-demand-driven oil price changes before assessing macroeconomic impacts.\n- Use a framework that captures both domestic (small open economy) and international (rest of the world) transmission channels when evaluating the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks.\n\nSource: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and Filiz D Unsal, \"On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations\", IMF Working Papers 2009, 285 (2009), DOI https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp09285 - References\n  - wp09285 - References (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp09285 - References (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz D Unsal",
    "Published: December 1, 2009",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001",
    "Aim: Model macroeconomic consequences of different sources of oil price changes within a new Keynesian DSGE framework.",
    "Scope: Models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to identify accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms.",
    "Shock types analyzed:",
    "Different sources of oil price fluctuations produce remarkably diverse outcomes for both the small open economy and the rest of the world.",
    "The paper emphasizes that analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first investigating the distinct sources of these changes and their distinct effects.",
    "Authors: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz D Unsal",
    "Publication date: December 1, 2009",
    "Pages: 28",
    "Volume: 2009",
    "Issue: 285",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2009/285",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2009285",
    "ISBN: 9781451874303",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects: Inflation, Labor productivity, Oil, Oil prices, Public enterprises",
    "Keywords: equilibrium mark-up, government spending shock, oil price inflation, oil price shock, price of oil, price volatility, WP",
    "Distinguish between supply-driven, demand-driven, and precautionary-demand-driven oil price changes before assessing macroeconomic impacts.",
    "Use a framework that captures both domestic (small open economy) and international (rest of the world) transmission channels when evaluating the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks.",
    "**_wp09285 - References**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "_wp09285 - References",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/_wp09285.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/_wp09285.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/_wp09285.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/on-the-sources-of-oil-price-fluctuations-23459/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T18:49:08.526Z"
}