## On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2009_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz D Unsal
- Published: December 1, 2009
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001

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### Research objective and approach
- Aim: Model macroeconomic consequences of different sources of oil price changes within a new Keynesian DSGE framework.
- Scope: Models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to identify accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms.
- Shock types analyzed:
  - oil supply shock
  - aggregate demand shock
  - precautionary oil demand shock

### Key findings
- Different sources of oil price fluctuations produce remarkably diverse outcomes for both the small open economy and the rest of the world.
- The paper emphasizes that analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first investigating the distinct sources of these changes and their distinct effects.

### Data, publication, and metadata
- Authors: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz D Unsal
- Publication date: December 1, 2009
- Pages: 28
- Volume: 2009
- Issue: 285
- Series: Working Paper No. 2009/285
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2009285
- ISBN: 9781451874303
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Inflation, Labor productivity, Oil, Oil prices, Public enterprises
- Keywords: equilibrium mark-up, government spending shock, oil price inflation, oil price shock, price of oil, price volatility, WP

### Analytical emphasis for policymakers and researchers
- Distinguish between supply-driven, demand-driven, and precautionary-demand-driven oil price changes before assessing macroeconomic impacts.
- Use a framework that captures both domestic (small open economy) and international (rest of the world) transmission channels when evaluating the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks.

*Source: Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and Filiz D Unsal, "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations", IMF Working Papers 2009, 285 (2009), DOI https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874303.001.*

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