{
  "title": "Post-Conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2011",
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  "summary": "This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- Study scope: analyzes cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques.\n- Most important correlate: changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments.\n- Magnitude: changes in the terms of trade are typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent.\n- Secondary importance: institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor.\n- Limited impact of aid: foreign aid has very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance.\n- Non-significant policy variables: other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect.\n- Interpretation: results suggest that exogenous factors (\"luck\") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Empirical approach: panel data techniques applied to a sample of 30 sub-Saharan African countries in post-conflict settings."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and metadata (preserve exact values)",
      "content": "- Sample size: 30 sub-Saharan African countries\n- Effect size: increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent\n- Pages: 33\n- Publication date: June 1, 2011\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/149\n- Issue: 149\n- Volume: 2011\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455269471.001\n- ISBN: 9781455269471\n- ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Mitigate terms-of-trade volatility:\n  - Implement countercyclical macroeconomic policies to cushion macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility.\n  - Develop innovative financing instruments to manage terms-of-trade shocks.\n- Promote export diversification to reduce vulnerability to terms-of-trade movements.\n- Strengthen institutional quality as a key supportive factor for recovery.\n- Recognize limits of foreign aid in explaining growth differentials and prioritize policies that address exogenous shocks and institutional frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Conclusion",
      "content": "- Post-conflict recovery outcomes are strongly influenced by exogenous terms-of-trade movements and institutional quality, while foreign aid and trade openness show limited explanatory power for cross-country differences in growth performance in the studied sample.\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper “Post-Conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?”, June 1, 2011.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp11149\n  - wp11149 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp11149 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/post-conflict-recovery-institutions-aid-or-luck-24993"
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    "Authors: Antonio David, Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos, Marshall Mills",
    "Published: June 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455269471.001",
    "Study scope: analyzes cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques.",
    "Most important correlate: changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments.",
    "Magnitude: changes in the terms of trade are typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent.",
    "Secondary importance: institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor.",
    "Limited impact of aid: foreign aid has very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance.",
    "Non-significant policy variables: other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect.",
    "Interpretation: results suggest that exogenous factors (\"luck\") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery.",
    "Empirical approach: panel data techniques applied to a sample of 30 sub-Saharan African countries in post-conflict settings.",
    "Sample size: 30 sub-Saharan African countries",
    "Effect size: increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent",
    "Pages: 33",
    "Publication date: June 1, 2011",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2011/149",
    "Issue: 149",
    "Volume: 2011",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455269471.001",
    "ISBN: 9781455269471",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Mitigate terms-of-trade volatility:",
    "Promote export diversification to reduce vulnerability to terms-of-trade movements.",
    "Strengthen institutional quality as a key supportive factor for recovery.",
    "Recognize limits of foreign aid in explaining growth differentials and prioritize policies that address exogenous shocks and institutional frameworks.",
    "Post-conflict recovery outcomes are strongly influenced by exogenous terms-of-trade movements and institutional quality, while foreign aid and trade openness show limited explanatory power for cross-country differences in growth performance in the studied sample.",
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