{
  "title": "Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2008",
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  "summary": "Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007.\n- Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots.\n- Consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation despite record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation.\n- Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analysis of drivers",
      "content": "- Monetary conditions: Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries are identified as a primary driver of the commodities price surge.\n- Exchange rate movements: A sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate is linked with the commodities price increases.\n- Common trend identification: Empirical evidence in the paper attributes commodities price behavior to a single common trend—referred to as a monetary shock.\n- Inflation measurement puzzle: Consumer price indices did not reflect the commodities inflationary pressures, creating a price puzzle for monetary policymakers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy dilemma and scenarios",
      "content": "- Policymakers may face a choice between:\n  - Maintaining an expansionary monetary policy stance, with potential outcomes of accelerating commodities price inflation, subsequent world recession, and financial disorder.\n  - Tightening monetary policy, with potential outcomes of subsequent world recession followed by recovery and financial and price stability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subject: Commodity price indexes, Commodity prices, Inflation, Oil prices, Price indexes\n- Keywords: commodities price, federal funds rate, monetary policy, WP\n\nSource: Noureddine Krichene, \"Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets\", IMF Working Paper (May 1, 2008).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Commodity Price Indices, Annual Percent Change, 1973–2007\n  - 1. Commodity Price Indices, Annual Percent Change, 1973–2007 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Commodity Price Indices, Annual Percent Change, 1973–2007 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/recent-inflationary-trends-in-world-commodities-markets-21967"
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    "Authors: Noureddine Krichene",
    "Published: May 1, 2008",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451869897.001",
    "Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007.",
    "Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots.",
    "Consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation despite record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation.",
    "Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock.",
    "Monetary conditions: Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries are identified as a primary driver of the commodities price surge.",
    "Exchange rate movements: A sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate is linked with the commodities price increases.",
    "Common trend identification: Empirical evidence in the paper attributes commodities price behavior to a single common trend—referred to as a monetary shock.",
    "Inflation measurement puzzle: Consumer price indices did not reflect the commodities inflationary pressures, creating a price puzzle for monetary policymakers.",
    "Policymakers may face a choice between:",
    "Subject: Commodity price indexes, Commodity prices, Inflation, Oil prices, Price indexes",
    "Keywords: commodities price, federal funds rate, monetary policy, WP",
    "**1. Commodity Price Indices, Annual Percent Change, 1973–2007**"
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