## Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

_IMF Working Papers, August 1, 2004_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yaroslav D Lissovolik, Bogdan Lissovolik
- Published: August 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451857702.001

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### Summary and central finding
- With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember.
- Using the gravity model, the paper gauges whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia's export structure.
- On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, the authors find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions.
- The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession.
- The results prompt ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade.

### Methodology and analytical approach
- Model used: gravity model applied to bilateral trade.
- Empirical techniques: cross-section and panel regressions.
- Sample period: 1995-2002.
- Outcome measured: Russian exports to WTO members versus model predictions.

### Key findings and quantitative observations
- Russian exports to WTO members are lower than predicted by the gravity model for the sample period 1995-2002.
- The gravity model suggests potential additional reorientation of Russian trade toward WTO members conditional on accession.

### Explanations, interpretations, and alternative mechanisms
- Possible explanations discussed:
  - Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures.
  - Own-export restrictions could produce a similar empirical effect (i.e., reduce exports to WTO members relative to model predictions).
- The paper discusses how these mechanisms may account for the observed shortfall and how the findings bear on the wider debate about the WTO's role in promoting trade.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Accession to the WTO is associated in the model with further trade reorientation toward WTO members (implying potential gains from accession).
- Identification of exporters' and policymakers' roles: addressing exclusion from WTO procedures or eliminating own-export restrictions could help align Russian exports with gravity-model predictions.

### Publication and bibliographic metadata
- Title: Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status
- Authors: Yaroslav D Lissovolik, Bogdan Lissovolik
- Date: August 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Paper No. 2004/159
- Pages: 43
- Volume: 2004
- Issue: 159
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451857702.001

*IMF Working Paper: "Russia and the WTO: The 'Gravity' of Outsider Status" (Y. D. Lissovolik, B. Lissovolik, August 1, 2004).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-and-the-wto-the-gravity-of-outsider-status-17659_