## Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

_IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2010_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-s-output-collapse-and-recovery-evidence-from-the-post-soviet-transition-23717)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-s-output-collapse-and-recovery-evidence-from-the-post-soviet-transition-23717/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-s-output-collapse-and-recovery-evidence-from-the-post-soviet-transition-23717/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-s-output-collapse-and-recovery-evidence-from-the-post-soviet-transition-23717/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Eteri Kvintradze
- Published: April 1, 2010
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451982596.001

---

### Summary findings
- The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues.
- The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970–2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth.
- A survey of the economic literature suggests the Russian economy could be viewed as a weighted combination of virtual and normal forces.

### Interpretation: virtual versus normal forces
- Normal market-economy domination:
  - Higher energy export receipts provide an opportunity for structural reforms while compensating for social costs.
  - Under normal domination, the economy is less vulnerable to decline in world energy prices.
- Virtual forces domination (value transfers from the energy sector to strategic enterprises):
  - High world energy prices are masking an inefficient manufacturing sector.
  - Under virtual domination, the Russian economy is highly vulnerable to energy price declines.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- If normal market forces dominate:
  - Use higher energy export receipts to finance structural reforms.
  - Compensate for social costs while reducing vulnerability to energy price declines.
- If virtual forces dominate:
  - Prioritize reforms that address value transfers and the inefficiency in the manufacturing sector.
  - Reduce reliance on energy rents to lower vulnerability to swings in world energy prices.

### Key thematic tags (as presented)
- Economic sectors
- Energy pricing
- Expenditure
- Industrial sector
- Production
- Production growth
- Productivity
- Total factor productivity

*Eteri Kvintradze, "Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition", IMF Working Paper.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **_wp1089**
  - [_wp1089 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1089.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_wp1089 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1089.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/russia-s-output-collapse-and-recovery-evidence-from-the-post-soviet-transition-23717_