{
  "title": "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 1, 2010",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/simulating-inflation-forecasting-in-real-time-how-useful-is-a-simple-phillips-curve-in-23656",
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  "summary": "This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and Research Design",
      "content": "- Purpose: Simulate out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US using output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data.\n- Key methodological distinction: Uses real-time GDP datasets (including a novel real-time German GDP dataset) to mimic the information set available to a policymaker at a given point in time, acknowledging that GDP data are subject to sometimes substantial revisions.\n- Comparative benchmark: AR(1) inflation forecast."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main Findings",
      "content": "- Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps:\n  - Generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast.\n- Phillips curves based on real-time output gaps:\n  - Often do not help forecasting inflation.\n- Implication: Raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Economic forecasting, Estimation techniques, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output\n- Keywords: GDP, output gap series, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1052 - References\n  - wp1052 - References (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1052 - References (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/simulating-inflation-forecasting-in-real-time-how-useful-is-a-simple-phillips-curve-in-23656"
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    "Authors: Jens R Clausen, Bianca Clausen",
    "Published: February 1, 2010",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451963380.001",
    "Purpose: Simulate out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US using output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data.",
    "Key methodological distinction: Uses real-time GDP datasets (including a novel real-time German GDP dataset) to mimic the information set available to a policymaker at a given point in time, acknowledging that GDP data are subject to sometimes substantial revisions.",
    "Comparative benchmark: AR(1) inflation forecast.",
    "Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps:",
    "Phillips curves based on real-time output gaps:",
    "Implication: Raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.",
    "Subject: Economic forecasting, Estimation techniques, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output",
    "Keywords: GDP, output gap series, WP",
    "**_wp1052 - References**"
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