{
  "title": "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2009",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/spillovers-from-the-rest-of-the-world-into-sub-saharan-african-countries-23113",
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  "summary": "This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, n",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary / Objective",
      "content": "- Investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual Sub-Saharan African countries.\n- Uses dynamic panel regressions relating real growth in domestic output to:\n  - world growth in trade weighted by partner countries,\n  - control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects.\n- Estimates are applied to prepare country-specific simulations.\n- Model is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Empirical approach: series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region.\n- Key regressors:\n  - world growth in trade (trade-weighted by partner countries),\n  - oil prices,\n  - non-oil prices,\n  - financial variables (including the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills),\n  - country fixed effects.\n- Novelty: application of the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills as a proxy for external financial conditions for countries in the region."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings and Analysis",
      "content": "- Countries in the region are significantly affected by:\n  - lower external demand for their exports,\n  - declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade,\n  - tighter financial conditions abroad.\n- The financial-conditions channel is proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills; this is among the first applications of such a measure for countries in the region.\n- The model performs well in out-of-sample estimation of spillover effects for the region."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords (as stated)",
      "content": "- Subject: Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity prices, Exports, International trade, Oil prices, Prices, Terms of trade\n- Keywords: Africa, commodity export price, Commodity price fluctuations, commodity prices, export price, Exports, financial linkages, Global, Growth spillovers, income reduction, oil price shock, Oil prices, panel estimate, price, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, terms of trade effect, terms of trade shock, world growth, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp09155\n  - Wp09155 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp09155 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/spillovers-from-the-rest-of-the-world-into-sub-saharan-african-countries-23113"
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    "Published: July 1, 2009",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451873023.001",
    "Investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual Sub-Saharan African countries.",
    "Uses dynamic panel regressions relating real growth in domestic output to:",
    "Estimates are applied to prepare country-specific simulations.",
    "Model is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region.",
    "Empirical approach: series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region.",
    "Key regressors:",
    "Novelty: application of the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills as a proxy for external financial conditions for countries in the region.",
    "Countries in the region are significantly affected by:",
    "The financial-conditions channel is proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills; this is among the first applications of such a measure for countries in the region.",
    "The model performs well in out-of-sample estimation of spillover effects for the region.",
    "Subject: Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity prices, Exports, International trade, Oil prices, Prices, Terms of trade",
    "Keywords: Africa, commodity export price, Commodity price fluctuations, commodity prices, export price, Exports, financial linkages, Global, Growth spillovers, income reduction, oil price shock, Oil prices, panel estimate, price, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, terms of trade effect, terms of trade shock, world growth, WP",
    "**Wp09155**"
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