{
  "title": "Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 1, 2011",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/targets-interest-rates-and-household-saving-in-urban-china-25260",
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  "summary": "This paper studies a panel of China's provinces over the period 1996-2009 during which urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Study period: 1996-2009.\n- Sample: panel of China's provinces.\n- Observed change: urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent of disposable income.\n- Paper length: 29 pages.\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/223.\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463904258.001"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- The increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over 1996-2009.\n- The negative association implies households exhibit target saving behavior:\n  - When the return to saving declines, it becomes more difficult to meet a target and households increase saving out of current disposable income to compensate.\n  - When the return to saving increases, it becomes easier to meet a target and households lower their saving out of current disposable income.\n- Results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Empirical evidence and robustness",
      "content": "- Panel analysis across provinces over 1996-2009 links real interest rate movements to urban household saving rate changes.\n- Robustness: findings hold across alternative model specifications and after adding additional control variables."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications",
      "content": "- A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption.\n\nSource: \"Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China\", Malhar S Nabar, IMF Working Papers 2011, 223 (2011), accessed 6/30/2026, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463904258.001\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp11223\n  - Wp11223 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp11223 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/targets-interest-rates-and-household-saving-in-urban-china-25260"
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    "Authors: Malhar S Nabar",
    "Published: October 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463904258.001",
    "Study period: 1996-2009.",
    "Sample: panel of China's provinces.",
    "Observed change: urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent of disposable income.",
    "Paper length: 29 pages.",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2011/223.",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463904258.001",
    "The increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over 1996-2009.",
    "The negative association implies households exhibit target saving behavior:",
    "Results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables.",
    "Panel analysis across provinces over 1996-2009 links real interest rate movements to urban household saving rate changes.",
    "Robustness: findings hold across alternative model specifications and after adding additional control variables.",
    "A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption.",
    "**Wp11223**"
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