{
  "title": "Tax Revenue and (or?) Trade Liberalization",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2005",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/index.md",
  "summary": "With the public finances of many developing and emerging market countries still heavily dependent on trade tax revenues, further trade liberalization may be hindered unless they are able to develop alternative sources of revenue.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary",
      "content": "- Study uses panel data for 111 countries over 25 years — cleaned for a variety of problems in standard data sources — to assess whether countries have recovered from revenue losses associated with past episodes of trade liberalization.\n- High-income countries clearly have recovered lost trade tax revenues.\n- Middle-income countries recovered in the order of 45-60 cents for each dollar of lost trade tax revenue, with signs of close to full recovery when separately identifying episodes in which trade tax revenues fell.\n- Low-income countries recovered, at best, no more than about 30 cents of each lost dollar of trade tax revenue.\n- Presence of a value-added tax (VAT) does not show much evidence of making it easier to cope with the revenue effects of trade liberalization."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major findings and key statistics",
      "content": "- Sample and period:\n  - Panel data covering 111 countries over 25 years.\n- Recovery magnitudes:\n  - High-income countries: described as having clearly recovered lost trade tax revenues (no numeric recovery provided).\n  - Middle-income countries: recovery in the order of 45-60 cents per lost dollar.\n  - Low-income countries: recovered, at best, no more than about 30 cents per lost dollar.\n- VAT effect:\n  - Little evidence that the presence of a value-added tax has in itself eased the revenue impact of trade liberalization."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject focus and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Expenditure, Revenue administration, Taxes on trade, Trade liberalization, Value-added tax\n- Keywords: revenue, taxation, trade, trade tax, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Full Sample, 1975–20001/\n  - 1. Full Sample, 1975–20001/ (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Full Sample, 1975–20001/ (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Michael Keen, Thomas Baunsgaard",
    "Published: June 1, 2005",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451861310.001",
    "Study uses panel data for 111 countries over 25 years — cleaned for a variety of problems in standard data sources — to assess whether countries have recovered from revenue losses associated with past episodes of trade liberalization.",
    "High-income countries clearly have recovered lost trade tax revenues.",
    "Middle-income countries recovered in the order of 45-60 cents for each dollar of lost trade tax revenue, with signs of close to full recovery when separately identifying episodes in which trade tax revenues fell.",
    "Low-income countries recovered, at best, no more than about 30 cents of each lost dollar of trade tax revenue.",
    "Presence of a value-added tax (VAT) does not show much evidence of making it easier to cope with the revenue effects of trade liberalization.",
    "Sample and period:",
    "Recovery magnitudes:",
    "VAT effect:",
    "Subject: Expenditure, Revenue administration, Taxes on trade, Trade liberalization, Value-added tax",
    "Keywords: revenue, taxation, trade, trade tax, WP",
    "**1. Full Sample, 1975–20001/**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "1. Full Sample, 1975–20001/",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/_wp05112.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/_wp05112.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/_wp05112.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-and-or-trade-liberalization-18252/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T06:35:25.817Z"
}
