{
  "title": "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2010",
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  "summary": "This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and Main Findings",
      "content": "- The paper estimates the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap and finds a positive and significant relationship between these variables.\n- Results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies.\n- Worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions).\n- Key policy implication: particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Authors and Publication",
      "content": "- By Cemile Sancak, Jing Xing, Ricardo Velloso\n- March 1, 2010\n- IMF Working Papers, Issue: 071, Series: Working Paper No. 2010/071"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Scope and Subjects",
      "content": "- Subject: Consumption, National accounts, Output gap, Production, Revenue administration, Revenue performance assessment, Tax efficiency, Taxes, Value-added tax\n- Keywords: Baltics, business cycle, C-efficiency, Consumption, estimation result, Output gap, output gap coefficient, output gap variable, Tax efficiency, tax revenue, tax revenue efficiency, tax revenue forecasting, Value-added tax, VAT C-efficiency, VAT elasticity, WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Recommendations and Implications",
      "content": "- Incorporate cyclical effects on tax revenue efficiency into revenue forecasting and policy analysis rather than relying solely on long-run revenue elasticities.\n- Account for shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion that alter VAT C-efficiency across contractions and expansions.\n\nTax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle, IMF Working Paper No. 2010/071 (March 1, 2010)\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1071 - Section VI presents the results for VAT C-efficiency, and section VII for PIT and SSC\n  - wp1071 - Section VI presents the results for VAT C-efficiency, and section VII for PIT and SSC (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1071 - Section VI presents the results for VAT C-efficiency, and section VII for PIT and SSC (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/tax-revenue-response-to-the-business-cycle-23715"
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    "Authors: Cemile Sancak, Jing Xing, Ricardo Velloso",
    "Published: March 1, 2010",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451982145.001",
    "The paper estimates the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap and finds a positive and significant relationship between these variables.",
    "Results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies.",
    "Worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions).",
    "Key policy implication: particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.",
    "By Cemile Sancak, Jing Xing, Ricardo Velloso",
    "March 1, 2010",
    "IMF Working Papers, Issue: 071, Series: Working Paper No. 2010/071",
    "Subject: Consumption, National accounts, Output gap, Production, Revenue administration, Revenue performance assessment, Tax efficiency, Taxes, Value-added tax",
    "Keywords: Baltics, business cycle, C-efficiency, Consumption, estimation result, Output gap, output gap coefficient, output gap variable, Tax efficiency, tax revenue, tax revenue efficiency, tax revenue forecasting, Value-added tax, VAT C-efficiency, VAT elasticity, WP",
    "Incorporate cyclical effects on tax revenue efficiency into revenue forecasting and policy analysis rather than relying solely on long-run revenue elasticities.",
    "Account for shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion that alter VAT C-efficiency across contractions and expansions.",
    "**_wp1071 - Section VI presents the results for VAT C-efficiency, and section VII for PIT and SSC**"
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