{
  "title": "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2007",
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  "summary": "This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research question and methodology",
      "content": "- Investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments.\n- Uses a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors.\n- Model estimation sample: quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main empirical findings",
      "content": "- 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks.\n- Conditional forecasts indicate:\n  - Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and U.S. or world growth.\n  - Latin American growth is sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp07176 - References\n  - wp07176 - References (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp07176 - References (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-effect-of-external-conditions-on-growth-in-latin-america-21163"
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    "Authors: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Pär Österholm",
    "Published: July 1, 2007",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867404.001",
    "Investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments.",
    "Uses a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors.",
    "Model estimation sample: quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables.",
    "50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks.",
    "Conditional forecasts indicate:",
    "**_wp07176 - References**"
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