{
  "title": "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 21, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-global-trade-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural-42609",
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  "summary": "This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Authors and Publication",
      "content": "- By Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta\n- January 21, 2015\n- IMF Working Paper No. 2015/006\n- Pages: 44\n- Volume: 2015\n- Issue: 006\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2015006\n- ISBN: 9781498399135\n- ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research Question and Approach",
      "content": "- Focus: sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years.\n- Empirical strategy: error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- The long-term trade elasticity:\n  - rose sharply in the 1990s,\n  - declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis.\n- Implication: trade is growing slowly not only because of slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years.\n- Available evidence points to the slowing pace of international vertical specialization as a likely explanation rather than:\n  - increasing protection, or\n  - changing composition of trade and GDP."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Economic sectors; Financial crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Imports; International trade; Manufacturing; National accounts; Personal income.\n- Keywords: Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global Trade Slowdown; import growth; Imports; Manufacturing; Personal income; trade elasticity; trade growth; trade slowdown; trade-income relationship; WP; WTO trade restrictiveness indicator."
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      "heading": "Document Metadata and Access",
      "content": "- Format available: PDF (Download PDF indicated)\n- Citation format example: Chicago — Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta. \"The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?\", IMF Working Papers 2015, 006 (2015), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper \"The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?\"\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1506\n  - wp1506 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1506 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-global-trade-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural-42609"
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    "Authors: Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta",
    "Published: January 21, 2015",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001",
    "By Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta",
    "January 21, 2015",
    "IMF Working Paper No. 2015/006",
    "Pages: 44",
    "Volume: 2015",
    "Issue: 006",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2015006",
    "ISBN: 9781498399135",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Focus: sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years.",
    "Empirical strategy: error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.",
    "The long-term trade elasticity:",
    "Implication: trade is growing slowly not only because of slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years.",
    "Available evidence points to the slowing pace of international vertical specialization as a likely explanation rather than:",
    "Subject: Economic sectors; Financial crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Imports; International trade; Manufacturing; National accounts; Personal income.",
    "Keywords: Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global Trade Slowdown; import growth; Imports; Manufacturing; Personal income; trade elasticity; trade growth; trade slowdown; trade-income relationship; WP; WTO trade restrictiveness indicator.",
    "Format available: PDF (Download PDF indicated)",
    "Citation format example: Chicago — Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta. \"The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?\", IMF Working Papers 2015, 006 (2015), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001",
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