## The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

_IMF Working Papers, January 21, 2015_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta
- Published: January 21, 2015
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001

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### Authors and Publication
- By Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta
- January 21, 2015
- IMF Working Paper No. 2015/006
- Pages: 44
- Volume: 2015
- Issue: 006
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2015006
- ISBN: 9781498399135
- ISSN: 1018-5941

### Research Question and Approach
- Focus: sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years.
- Empirical strategy: error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.

### Key Findings
- The long-term trade elasticity:
  - rose sharply in the 1990s,
  - declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis.
- Implication: trade is growing slowly not only because of slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years.
- Available evidence points to the slowing pace of international vertical specialization as a likely explanation rather than:
  - increasing protection, or
  - changing composition of trade and GDP.

### Subject Areas and Keywords
- Subject: Economic sectors; Financial crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Imports; International trade; Manufacturing; National accounts; Personal income.
- Keywords: Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global Trade Slowdown; import growth; Imports; Manufacturing; Personal income; trade elasticity; trade growth; trade slowdown; trade-income relationship; WP; WTO trade restrictiveness indicator.

### Document Metadata and Access
- Format available: PDF (Download PDF indicated)
- Citation format example: Chicago — Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?", IMF Working Papers 2015, 006 (2015), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498399135.001

*Source: IMF Working Paper "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?"*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-global-trade-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural-42609_