{
  "title": "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 15, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/trading-on-their-terms-commodity-exporters-in-the-aftermath-of-the-commodity-boom-43707",
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  "summary": "Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities.\n- Both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output.\n- The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17.\n- The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Quantitative impacts and scope",
      "content": "- Estimated annual average reduction in actual output growth during 2015-17: 1 to 2¼ percentage points.\n- Relative comovement: actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output with commodity terms of trade.\n- Forecast drag on potential output: about one-third of the drag on actual output."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject matter and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices, Potential output, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity.\n- Keywords: commodity boom; Commodity booms; commodity cycle; commodity exporter; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; Commodity prices; commodity sector; commodity terms of trade; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; commodity-exporting economy; East Asia; exchange rate; Global; Natural Resources; Potential Output; price boom; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; WP.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom\n  - Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/trading-on-their-terms-commodity-exporters-in-the-aftermath-of-the-commodity-boom-43707"
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    "Authors: Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, Zsoka Koczan",
    "Published: February 15, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001",
    "Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities.",
    "Both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output.",
    "The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17.",
    "The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.",
    "Estimated annual average reduction in actual output growth during 2015-17: 1 to 2¼ percentage points.",
    "Relative comovement: actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output with commodity terms of trade.",
    "Forecast drag on potential output: about one-third of the drag on actual output.",
    "Subjects: Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices, Potential output, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity.",
    "Keywords: commodity boom; Commodity booms; commodity cycle; commodity exporter; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; Commodity prices; commodity sector; commodity terms of trade; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; commodity-exporting economy; East Asia; exchange rate; Global; Natural Resources; Potential Output; price boom; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; WP.",
    "**Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom**"
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