## Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

_IMF Working Papers, February 15, 2016_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, Zsoka Koczan
- Published: February 15, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001

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### Key findings
- Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities.
- Both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output.
- The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17.
- The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

### Quantitative impacts and scope
- Estimated annual average reduction in actual output growth during 2015-17: 1 to 2¼ percentage points.
- Relative comovement: actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output with commodity terms of trade.
- Forecast drag on potential output: about one-third of the drag on actual output.

### Subject matter and keywords
- Subjects: Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices, Potential output, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity.
- Keywords: commodity boom; Commodity booms; commodity cycle; commodity exporter; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; Commodity prices; commodity sector; commodity terms of trade; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; commodity-exporting economy; East Asia; exchange rate; Global; Natural Resources; Potential Output; price boom; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; WP.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/trading-on-their-terms-commodity-exporters-in-the-aftermath-of-the-commodity-boom-43707_