{
  "title": "Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 14, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/uncertainty-and-the-employment-dynamics-of-small-and-large-businesses-42601",
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  "summary": "We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and Research Question",
      "content": "- Examines the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics.\n- Focus on differential effects across relatively smaller (small and entrepreneurial) and large businesses.\n- Discusses implications for the framing of economic policy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Measures and Methods",
      "content": "- Alternative measures of uncertainty constructed from:\n  - Survey of professional forecasters.\n  - Regression-based forecasting models for:\n    - GDP growth\n    - Inflation\n    - S&P500 stock price index\n    - Fuel prices\n- Empirical approach centers on employment growth as the dependent variable."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment.\n- Effects are primarily felt by relatively smaller businesses.\n- Impact on large businesses is generally non-existent or weaker.\n- Conclusion: To truly understand effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, focus on relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Implications",
      "content": "- Economic policy framing should account for heterogeneity by firm size, with particular attention to small and entrepreneurial firms that are more sensitive to uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Tags and Keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subject: Economic sectors, Employment, Fuel prices, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Small and medium enterprises\n- Keywords: BLS fuel price indices, business group, costs firms face, dependent variable, employment, employment decision, entrepreneurship, financing-constraints, financing-constraints channel, fuel price uncertainty, Fuel prices, Global, Inflation, inflation rate, price index, real GDP, real-options, representative firm, size class, Small and medium enterprises, small businesses, stock price index, uncertainty, uncertainty measure, venture capital, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1504 — Appendix A: Selected Empirical Findings on the Impact of Uncertainty\n  - wp1504 — Appendix A: Selected Empirical Findings on the Impact of Uncertainty (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1504 — Appendix A: Selected Empirical Findings on the Impact of Uncertainty (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/uncertainty-and-the-employment-dynamics-of-small-and-large-businesses-42601"
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    "Authors: Vivek Ghosal, Yang Ye",
    "Published: January 14, 2015",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001",
    "Examines the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics.",
    "Focus on differential effects across relatively smaller (small and entrepreneurial) and large businesses.",
    "Discusses implications for the framing of economic policy.",
    "Alternative measures of uncertainty constructed from:",
    "Empirical approach centers on employment growth as the dependent variable.",
    "Greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment.",
    "Effects are primarily felt by relatively smaller businesses.",
    "Impact on large businesses is generally non-existent or weaker.",
    "Conclusion: To truly understand effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, focus on relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses.",
    "Economic policy framing should account for heterogeneity by firm size, with particular attention to small and entrepreneurial firms that are more sensitive to uncertainty.",
    "Subject: Economic sectors, Employment, Fuel prices, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Small and medium enterprises",
    "Keywords: BLS fuel price indices, business group, costs firms face, dependent variable, employment, employment decision, entrepreneurship, financing-constraints, financing-constraints channel, fuel price uncertainty, Fuel prices, Global, Inflation, inflation rate, price index, real GDP, real-options, representative firm, size class, Small and medium enterprises, small businesses, stock price index, uncertainty, uncertainty measure, venture capital, WP",
    "**_wp1504 — Appendix A: Selected Empirical Findings on the Impact of Uncertainty**"
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