{
  "title": "Vacation Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2008",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/vacation-over-implications-for-the-caribbean-of-opening-u-s-21887",
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  "summary": "An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry.\n- The study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries.\n- After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals.\n- Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba.\n- The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major findings",
      "content": "- A hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals.\n- Neighboring destinations would lose implicit protection afforded by the current U.S.-Cuba tourism restriction.\n- Cuba would gain market share following liberalization.\n- Short-run effects would be partially offset by redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba.\n- Caribbean countries remain generally dependent on U.S. tourists and are therefore vulnerable to changes in U.S.-Cuba tourism policy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and controls",
      "content": "- The study estimates a counterfactual capturing the bilateral restriction on tourism between the United States and Cuba.\n- Controls used in the analysis include natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and considerations",
      "content": "- Destinations in the Caribbean should assess their dependence on U.S. tourists given the potential for increased competition from Cuba after liberalization.\n- Policymakers may need to consider diversification strategies for tourism markets to reduce vulnerability to changes in U.S.-Cuba travel policy.\n- Short-run redistribution effects imply transition considerations for countries currently receiving non-U.S. tourists redistributed by Cuba.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp08162 — Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism\n  - wp08162 — Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp08162 — Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/vacation-over-implications-for-the-caribbean-of-opening-u-s-21887"
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    "Authors: Rafael Romeu",
    "Published: July 1, 2008",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451870206.001",
    "An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry.",
    "The study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries.",
    "After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals.",
    "Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba.",
    "The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.",
    "A hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals.",
    "Neighboring destinations would lose implicit protection afforded by the current U.S.-Cuba tourism restriction.",
    "Cuba would gain market share following liberalization.",
    "Short-run effects would be partially offset by redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba.",
    "Caribbean countries remain generally dependent on U.S. tourists and are therefore vulnerable to changes in U.S.-Cuba tourism policy.",
    "The study estimates a counterfactual capturing the bilateral restriction on tourism between the United States and Cuba.",
    "Controls used in the analysis include natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors.",
    "Destinations in the Caribbean should assess their dependence on U.S. tourists given the potential for increased competition from Cuba after liberalization.",
    "Policymakers may need to consider diversification strategies for tourism markets to reduce vulnerability to changes in U.S.-Cuba travel policy.",
    "Short-run redistribution effects imply transition considerations for countries currently receiving non-U.S. tourists redistributed by Cuba.",
    "**_wp08162 — Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism**"
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