{
  "title": "Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2006",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/volatility-and-growth-in-latin-america-an-episodic-approach-20181",
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  "summary": "This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970.\n- Examines in particular the role of policy volatility.\n- Distinguishes macroeconomic outcomes from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints.\n- Constructs a composite measure of structural reforms for the 1970-2004 period based on previous work."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and Scope",
      "content": "- Sample: 17 Latin American countries.\n- Timeframe: since 1970, with a composite structural reform measure for 1970-2004.\n- Analytical focus: separating outcomes, policies, structural reforms/reversals, shocks (including U.S. interest rates), and institutional constraints."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes.\n- Shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across high- and low-growth episodes.\n- Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth.\n- Fiscal policy procyclicality is not associated with lower growth.\n- Low levels of market-oriented reforms are associated with lower growth.\n- Structural reform reversals are associated with lower growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Implications",
      "content": "- Reducing fiscal policy volatility could support higher growth.\n- Stabilizing policy frameworks to avoid structural reform reversals may foster better long-run growth performance.\n- Emphasizing sustained market-oriented reforms could be important for raising growth outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Keywords and Subjects (as presented)",
      "content": "- Subjects: Currency crises, Exchange rate arrangements, Financial crises, Financial services, Fiscal policy, Foreign exchange, Macrostructural analysis, Real interest rates, Structural reforms\n- Keywords: composite index, country authorities, country case studies, country policy, Currency crises, Episodic Approach, exchange rate, Exchange rate arrangements, Global, Growth, Latin America, Latin American country, long-run growth performance, real interest rate, Real interest rates, simple average, Structural Reforms, terms of trade, Volatility, WP\n\nSource: Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach, Ratna Sahay and Rishi Goyal, IMF Working Paper No. 2006/287.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp06287\n  - wp06287 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp06287 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/volatility-and-growth-in-latin-america-an-episodic-approach-20181"
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    "Authors: Ratna Sahay, Rishi Goyal",
    "Published: December 1, 2006",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451865479.001",
    "Compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970.",
    "Examines in particular the role of policy volatility.",
    "Distinguishes macroeconomic outcomes from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints.",
    "Constructs a composite measure of structural reforms for the 1970-2004 period based on previous work.",
    "Sample: 17 Latin American countries.",
    "Timeframe: since 1970, with a composite structural reform measure for 1970-2004.",
    "Analytical focus: separating outcomes, policies, structural reforms/reversals, shocks (including U.S. interest rates), and institutional constraints.",
    "Outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes.",
    "Shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across high- and low-growth episodes.",
    "Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth.",
    "Fiscal policy procyclicality is not associated with lower growth.",
    "Low levels of market-oriented reforms are associated with lower growth.",
    "Structural reform reversals are associated with lower growth.",
    "Reducing fiscal policy volatility could support higher growth.",
    "Stabilizing policy frameworks to avoid structural reform reversals may foster better long-run growth performance.",
    "Emphasizing sustained market-oriented reforms could be important for raising growth outcomes.",
    "Subjects: Currency crises, Exchange rate arrangements, Financial crises, Financial services, Fiscal policy, Foreign exchange, Macrostructural analysis, Real interest rates, Structural reforms",
    "Keywords: composite index, country authorities, country case studies, country policy, Currency crises, Episodic Approach, exchange rate, Exchange rate arrangements, Global, Growth, Latin America, Latin American country, long-run growth performance, real interest rate, Real interest rates, simple average, Structural Reforms, terms of trade, Volatility, WP",
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