## What Makes Growth Sustained?

_IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2008_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew Berg, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- Published: March 1, 2008
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451869217.001

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### Research question and methodology
- Identifies structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and uses these to define "growth spells": periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample.
- Notes regional variation: growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere.

### Key empirical findings
- Growth duration is positively related to:
  - the degree of equality of the income distribution;
  - democratic institutions;
  - export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration);
  - macroeconomic stability (with even moderate instability curtailing growth duration).
- Emphasizes that even moderate macroeconomic instability shortens growth duration.

### Policy-relevant implications (inferred from findings)
- Promote more equal income distribution to lengthen growth spells.
- Strengthen democratic institutions to support sustained growth.
- Encourage export orientation, specifically:
  - higher propensities to export manufactures;
  - greater openness to FDI;
  - avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation.
- Maintain macroeconomic stability, avoiding moderate instability that can curtail growth duration.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Exports, Income, Income distribution, Income inequality, Terms of trade
- Keywords: current account, developing country, exchange rate, hazard ratio, terms of trade shock, WP

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## Content in this bundle

- **11. Summary Regressions**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/what-makes-growth-sustained-21769_