{
  "title": "Wild or Tamed?: India’s Potential Growth",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2007",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/index.md",
  "summary": "With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its \"speed limit.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the central debate addressed is whether India is overheating—i.e., whether growth is above potential (\"speed limit\").\n- The paper provides up-to-date projections of India's potential growth and clarifies differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that produce a range of estimates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and projections",
      "content": "- Estimates of potential growth range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07.\n- Medium-term potential growth is estimated at about 8 percent.\n- The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analysis themes and technical focus",
      "content": "- Growth accounting and decomposition of sources of growth.\n- Human capital, labor, productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) as central determinants of potential growth.\n- Emphasis on clarifying how differing underlying assumptions across researchers lead to the observed range of potential-growth estimates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks, scenarios, and uncertainties",
      "content": "- Downside risks: volatility in productivity gains and investment could lower potential growth.\n- Upside prospects: determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth and support the higher end of potential estimates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Reforms that raise and sustain productivity are critical to achieving the upper range of potential growth.\n- Policies to stabilize and encourage investment are important to mitigate downside volatility in medium-term potential.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp07224\n  - wp07224 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp07224 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Hiroko Oura",
    "Published: September 1, 2007",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867886.001",
    "With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the central debate addressed is whether India is overheating—i.e., whether growth is above potential (\"speed limit\").",
    "The paper provides up-to-date projections of India's potential growth and clarifies differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that produce a range of estimates.",
    "Estimates of potential growth range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07.",
    "Medium-term potential growth is estimated at about 8 percent.",
    "The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth.",
    "Growth accounting and decomposition of sources of growth.",
    "Human capital, labor, productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) as central determinants of potential growth.",
    "Emphasis on clarifying how differing underlying assumptions across researchers lead to the observed range of potential-growth estimates.",
    "Downside risks: volatility in productivity gains and investment could lower potential growth.",
    "Upside prospects: determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth and support the higher end of potential estimates.",
    "Reforms that raise and sustain productivity are critical to achieving the upper range of potential growth.",
    "Policies to stabilize and encourage investment are important to mitigate downside volatility in medium-term potential.",
    "**_wp07224**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "_wp07224",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07224.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07224.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/_wp07224.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/wild-or-tamed-indias-potential-growth-21326/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T10:42:46.425Z"
}