## Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil

_IMF Working Papers, January 24, 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/24/financial-and-business-cycles-in-brazil-44577)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/24/financial-and-business-cycles-in-brazil-44577/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/24/financial-and-business-cycles-in-brazil-44577/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/24/financial-and-business-cycles-in-brazil-44577/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Ivo Krznar, Troy D Matheson
- Published: January 24, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475571042.001

---

### Overview
- Paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil.
- Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy.
- Advantage of the model-based approach: financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way.
- Publication type: IMF Working Papers.

### Methodology
- Estimation approaches:
  - A variety of commonly-used statistical methods.
  - A small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy.
- Joint estimation feature:
  - Model-based approach allows financial and business cycles to be jointly estimated, integrating information from key economic relationships.

### Key Findings
- Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle.
- Results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages.
- Results highlight risks to the recovery going forward.

### Implications and Risks
- Macro-financial linkages are important for cycle dynamics and for assessing recovery prospects.
- Downturn phase of the financial cycle implies heightened risks to economic recovery.

### Publication metadata (selected)
- Pages: 28
- Volume: 2017
- Issue: 012
- Series: Working Paper No. 2017/012
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475571042.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2017012
- ISBN: 9781475571042
- ISSN: 1018-5941

### Subjects and Keywords
- Subject: Business cycles, Credit, Credit cycles, Economic growth, Financial cycles, Financial institutions, Financial sector policy and analysis, Money, State-owned banks
- Keywords: business cycle, Business cycles, Credit, Credit cycles, credit growth, credit response, credit shock, credit slowdown, financial condition, financial conditions index, financial conditions shock, Financial cycle, Financial cycles, Global, public-sector credit, State-owned banks, WP

*Ivo Krznar, and Troy D Matheson. "Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil", IMF Working Papers 2017, 012 (2017), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475571042.001*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil**
  - [Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/wp1712.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/wp1712.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/24/financial-and-business-cycles-in-brazil-44577_