{
  "title": "Oil Prices and the Global Economy",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 27, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/27/oil-prices-and-the-global-economy-44594",
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  "summary": "This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, a",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Authors and publication",
      "content": "- Authors: Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao\n- Publication date: January 27, 2017\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2017/015\n- Issue: 015\n- Volume: 2017\n- Pages: 30\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2017015\n- ISBN: 9781475572360\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Preview citation (as provided): Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, and Jiaxiong Yao. \"Oil Prices and the Global Economy\", IMF Working Papers 2017, 015 (2017), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model structure and key mechanisms",
      "content": "- The paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market that incorporates:\n  - Supply-side features: depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction.\n  - Demand-side features: secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses.\n- The model is used as an analytical framework to explore effects of:\n  - a change in world GDP growth;\n  - a change in the efficiency of oil usage;\n  - a change in the supply of oil."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Principal findings and implications",
      "content": "- Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, the analysis suggests:\n  - an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.\n- The model provides inter alia a useful analytical framework to explore demand and supply dynamics, including price incentive effects and supply elasticity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject classification and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Commodities; Economic sectors; Economic theory; Natural gas sector; Oil; Oil prices; Oil production; Prices; Production; Supply elasticity\n- Keywords: consumption efficiency; cycle; demand and supply; demand and supply price elasticity; depletion; Global; macroeconomic model; Natural gas sector; Oil; Oil market; oil price; Oil prices; Oil production; oil supply; price incentive; price of oil; supply curve; Supply elasticity; supply shock; technology; WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Available formats and access notes",
      "content": "- Landing page indicates availability of PDF and multiple formats via the IMF eLibrary.\n- Related features on the landing page: download PDF, more formats on IMF eLibrary, order a print copy, create citation, share.\n\nSource: IMF Working Papers — \"Oil Prices and the Global Economy\" (Working Paper No. 2017/015), January 27, 2017.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Oil Prices and the Global Economy\n  - Oil Prices and the Global Economy (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Oil Prices and the Global Economy (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/01/27/oil-prices-and-the-global-economy-44594"
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    "Authors: Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao",
    "Published: January 27, 2017",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001",
    "Authors: Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao",
    "Publication date: January 27, 2017",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2017/015",
    "Issue: 015",
    "Volume: 2017",
    "Pages: 30",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2017015",
    "ISBN: 9781475572360",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Preview citation (as provided): Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, and Jiaxiong Yao. \"Oil Prices and the Global Economy\", IMF Working Papers 2017, 015 (2017), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475572360.001",
    "The paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market that incorporates:",
    "The model is used as an analytical framework to explore effects of:",
    "Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, the analysis suggests:",
    "The model provides inter alia a useful analytical framework to explore demand and supply dynamics, including price incentive effects and supply elasticity.",
    "Subject: Commodities; Economic sectors; Economic theory; Natural gas sector; Oil; Oil prices; Oil production; Prices; Production; Supply elasticity",
    "Keywords: consumption efficiency; cycle; demand and supply; demand and supply price elasticity; depletion; Global; macroeconomic model; Natural gas sector; Oil; Oil market; oil price; Oil prices; Oil production; oil supply; price incentive; price of oil; supply curve; Supply elasticity; supply shock; technology; WP",
    "Landing page indicates availability of PDF and multiple formats via the IMF eLibrary.",
    "Related features on the landing page: download PDF, more formats on IMF eLibrary, order a print copy, create citation, share.",
    "**Oil Prices and the Global Economy**"
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