{
  "title": "A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 14, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/index.md",
  "summary": "Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research question and methods",
      "content": "- Research question: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical?\n- Methods used:\n  - Production function approach\n  - Basic multivariate filter\n  - Multivariate filter with financial frictions\n- Sample and period:\n  - 18 CESEE countries\n  - 2000-15"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region.\n- The decline in potential growth appears largely due to:\n  - Stagnant productivity\n  - Weaker capital accumulation\n- Common external factors associated with the decline include:\n  - Trading partners’ slow potential growth\n  - Decline in global trade\n  - Stalled expansion of global value chains\n- Output gap estimates:\n  - Output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications (inferred from findings)",
      "content": "- Policies aimed at restoring potential growth should address:\n  - Reviving productivity growth\n  - Supporting capital accumulation\n  - Mitigating adverse external developments from trading partners and global trade dynamics\n  - Reintegrating or leveraging global value chains where feasible\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries\n  - A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Jiri Podpiera, Faezeh Raei, Ara Stepanyan",
    "Published: February 14, 2017",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578980.001",
    "Research question: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical?",
    "Methods used:",
    "Sample and period:",
    "Potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region.",
    "The decline in potential growth appears largely due to:",
    "Common external factors associated with the decline include:",
    "Output gap estimates:",
    "Policies aimed at restoring potential growth should address:",
    "**A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1737.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1737.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1737.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/02/14/a-fresh-look-at-potential-output-in-central-eastern-and-southeastern-european-countries-44665/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T11:06:58.809Z"
}