{
  "title": "Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 22, 2017",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/03/22/private-and-public-debt-are-emerging-markets-at-risk-44754",
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  "summary": "Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Authors: Marco Bernardini, Lorenzo Forni  \n- Publication date: March 22, 2017  \n- Series: Working Paper No. 2017/061  \n- Issue: 061"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), the study examines the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times.\n- Private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs); this effect is documented to be very pronounced in EMEs as well.\n- Rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises.\n- In EMEs, rapid public debt buildups are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs.\n- Part of the difference in recession depth and duration between EMEs and AEs is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analysis and interpretation",
      "content": "- Comparative effect of private debt:\n  - The amplification of recession duration and intensity associated with private debt accumulation, previously documented for AEs, is observed and stronger in EMEs.\n- Role of public debt:\n  - Rapid increases in public debt are not identified as the primary cause of financial crises.\n  - Nonetheless, when rapid public debt buildups occur in EMEs, they correlate with more severe and prolonged downturns relative to AEs.\n- Fiscal policy responsiveness:\n  - A contributing factor to the worse outcomes in EMEs is a less supportive fiscal policy response during crises compared with AEs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject classification and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Banking crises, Financial crises, Fiscal policy, National accounts, Private debt, Public debt\n- Keywords: accumulation matter, banking crises, debt accumulation, debt buildup, debt-recession cycle, emerging markets, financial crisis, Global, government spending, Private debt, private-public debt, recessions, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?, WP/17/61, March 2017\n  - Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?, WP/17/61, March 2017 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?, WP/17/61, March 2017 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/03/22/private-and-public-debt-are-emerging-markets-at-risk-44754"
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    "Authors: Marco Bernardini, Lorenzo Forni",
    "Published: March 22, 2017",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588170.001",
    "Authors: Marco Bernardini, Lorenzo Forni",
    "Publication date: March 22, 2017",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2017/061",
    "Issue: 061",
    "Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), the study examines the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times.",
    "Private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs); this effect is documented to be very pronounced in EMEs as well.",
    "Rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises.",
    "In EMEs, rapid public debt buildups are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs.",
    "Part of the difference in recession depth and duration between EMEs and AEs is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.",
    "Comparative effect of private debt:",
    "Role of public debt:",
    "Fiscal policy responsiveness:",
    "Subject: Banking crises, Financial crises, Fiscal policy, National accounts, Private debt, Public debt",
    "Keywords: accumulation matter, banking crises, debt accumulation, debt buildup, debt-recession cycle, emerging markets, financial crisis, Global, government spending, Private debt, private-public debt, recessions, WP",
    "**Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?, WP/17/61, March 2017**"
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