## Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives

_IMF Working Papers, July 7, 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/07/07/panamas-growth-prospects-determinants-and-sectoral-perspectives-45030)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/07/07/panamas-growth-prospects-determinants-and-sectoral-perspectives-45030/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/07/07/panamas-growth-prospects-determinants-and-sectoral-perspectives-45030/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Kimberly Beaton, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
- Published: July 7, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484307861.001

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### Summary and framework
- The paper estimates medium-term potential growth for Panama amid significant structural and secular changes.
- A forward-looking framework is used, incorporating three analytical approaches to examine economic prospects; this complements backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data.
- The opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 is highlighted as a key structural change affecting the Panamanian economy.

### Major findings on growth determinants
- Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model.
- Improvements in education and governance are important to support growth.
- The current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace.

### Sectoral perspectives and opportunities
- Logistics: Further development of the logistics sector holds promise to build on Panama’s comparative advantage.
- Tourism: Further development of the tourism sector is identified as a promising area to reinforce comparative advantage.
- Transportation and infrastructure: The expanded Panama Canal (opened in 2016) and ongoing investment projects are central to the country’s evolving infrastructure base.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen education to support medium-term potential growth.
- Improve governance to sustain and enhance the existing business model.
- Prioritize the execution and management of the pipeline of investment projects to maintain investment-led growth, recognizing that growth may proceed at a more moderate pace.
- Support targeted development of logistics and tourism to capitalize on comparative advantages.

### Methodology and scope
- Uses a forward-looking framework with three analytical approaches (not specified in detail on this page) to estimate potential growth.
- Emphasizes complementarity with backward-looking filtering and extrapolation methods.

*Source: IMF Working Paper by Kimberly Beaton and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, July 7, 2017.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives, WP/17/150, July 2017**
  - [Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives, WP/17/150, July 2017 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp17150.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives, WP/17/150, July 2017 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp17150.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/07/07/panamas-growth-prospects-determinants-and-sectoral-perspectives-45030_