## Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World

_IMF Working Papers, August 30, 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/08/30/emissions-and-growth-trends-and-cycles-in-a-globalized-world-45202)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/08/30/emissions-and-growth-trends-and-cycles-in-a-globalized-world-45202/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto
- Published: August 30, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484316702.001

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### Key findings: cycles versus trends
- Recent discussions of the extent of decoupling between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real gross domestic product (GDP) provide mixed evidence and have generated much debate.
- It is important to distinguish cycles from trends to get a clear picture of decoupling: there is an Environmental Okun's Law (a cyclical relationship between emissions and real GDP) that often obscures the trend relationship between emissions and real GDP.
- Once the cyclical relationship is accounted for, the trends show evidence of decoupling in richer nations—particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets.

### International trade and emissions accounting
- Distinguishing between production-based and consumption-based emissions changes the picture.
- Once net emission transfers via international trade are included, the evidence for decoupling among the richer countries gets weaker.

### Role of policy frameworks
- Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and supportive of climate change tend to have greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP.
- This greater decoupling is observed for both production- and consumption-based emissions.

### Subject coverage and keywords
- Subject: Business cycles, Economic growth, Environment, Exports, Greenhouse gas emissions, Imports, Income, International trade, National accounts
- Keywords (as provided): Africa, business cycle, Business cycles, East Asia, Eastern Europe, Emissions, emissions-output elasticity, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Environmental Okun’s Law, Exports, Global, Greenhouse gas emissions, Imports, Income, Kuznets coefficient, Kuznets elasticity, Okun coefficient, Okun elasticity, real GDP, time series, WP

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## Content in this bundle

- **Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World, WP/17/191, August 2017**
  - [Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World, WP/17/191, August 2017 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp17191.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World, WP/17/191, August 2017 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp17191.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/08/30/emissions-and-growth-trends-and-cycles-in-a-globalized-world-45202_