## Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries

_IMF Working Papers, September 11, 2017_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, Rohini Ray
- Published: September 11, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314203.001

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### Overview
- More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF).
- This working paper focuses on the performance of MTBFs in six countries: Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.
- It assesses effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving:
  - improved fiscal discipline,
  - resource allocation,
  - certainty of funding,
  - wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment.
- Authors: Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, Rohini Ray
- Date: September 11, 2017

### Key findings on MTBF performance
- Early successes in many countries were not sustained.
- Budgetary outcomes did not improve in most countries.
- Contributing factors to weak outcomes included:
  - poor data,
  - inadequate forecasting methodologies,
  - reforms that were largely supply driven.

### Phases of MTBF development
- The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases.
- Transitioning from one phase to the next requires:
  - building capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis,
  - improving the credibility of the annual budget process.

### Policy recommendations and focus areas
- Develop capacity in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis.
- Improve credibility of the annual budget process to support MTBF evolution.
- Address technical weaknesses such as data quality and forecasting methodologies.
- Ensure reforms are demand driven and integrated with broader PFM processes to sustain early gains.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords: Africa, budget, budget framework, budget office, Budget planning and preparation, budget preparation process, budget review process, case country, challenge function, country, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, medium-term expenditure frameworks, PFM system, program budget, public financial management, sub-Saharan Africa, WP

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/09/11/medium-term-budget-frameworks-in-sub-saharan-african-countries-45093_