## Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

_IMF Working Papers, November 15, 2017_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, Michael G. Papaioannou
- Published: November 15, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324936.001

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### Authors and publication
- By Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, Michael G. Papaioannou
- November 15, 2017
- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2017/246
- Pages: 63
- Volume: 2017
- Issue: 246
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324936.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2017246
- ISBN: 9781484324936
- ISSN: 1018-5941

### Central focus and operational scope
- Loss of market access (LMA) is identified as a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises.
- The paper provides an operational definition of LMA.
- The methodological framework aims to:
  - Examine the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators.
  - Attempt to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode.
  - Analyze potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access.
  - Highlight the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.

### Key themes and findings
- Operational definition of LMA:
  - Establishes a framework to characterize episodes of loss of market access.
- Predictive indicators:
  - The paper examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators (LMA indicator, LMA variable).
- Nature of LMA episodes:
  - The analysis attempts to distinguish between temporary versus structural LMA episodes (LMA episode, LMA event).
- Policy and adjustment implications:
  - The likely nature of an LMA episode has implications for the required degree of adjustment to restore market access.
- Applications:
  - Framework can be applied for identifying emerging risks to market access.

### Subject classifications and keywords
- Subject: Bonds, Credit ratings, Debt sustainability, External debt, Financial institutions, Financial services, Money, Public debt, Yield curve
- Keywords: Bond Spreads, Bonds, Credit ratings, debt market, Debt sustainability, Default, Global, LMA episode, LMA event, LMA indicator, LMA risk, LMA variable, market access, Sovereign Debt Restructuring, WP, Yield curve

*Source: IMF Working Paper "Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues" (Working Paper No. 2017/246), Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, Michael G. Papaioannou, November 15, 2017.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/11/15/assessing-loss-of-market-access-conceptual-and-operational-issues-45347_