{
  "title": "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 10, 2018",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/index.md",
  "summary": "Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and key findings",
      "content": "- Constructed a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey.\n- Assessed how EPU affects Turkish firms using firm-level and sector-level analysis.\n- Firms with a high share of irreversible investment are more exposed to policy uncertainty.\n- In sectors with large irreversible investment, EPU has a greater effect on:\n  - growth,\n  - investment,\n  - leverage.\n- Results are robust to different definitions of investment irreversibility, lag structure, and selection of sectors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Main identification strategy: difference-in-differences approach.\n- Exploits cross-sectoral variation in the share of irreversible investment to disentangle endogeneity and reverse causality concerns.\n- Analysis uses firm-level micro data and sector-level comparisons."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects, keywords, and technical terms preserved from source",
      "content": "- Subject: Credit default swap, Employment, GDP forecasting, Labor, Money, National accounts\n- Keywords: Credit default swap, depreciation rate, diff-in-diff estimation, economic uncertainty, Employment, employment growth, EPU index, firm-level, GDP forecasting, Global, gross investment, investment decisions, investment irreversibility, investment model, leverage strategies, micro data, Policy uncertainty, sector-level, Turkey, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey, WP/18/272, December 2018\n  - Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey, WP/18/272, December 2018 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey, WP/18/272, December 2018 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, Antonio Spilimbergo",
    "Published: December 10, 2018",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484387740.001",
    "Constructed a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey.",
    "Assessed how EPU affects Turkish firms using firm-level and sector-level analysis.",
    "Firms with a high share of irreversible investment are more exposed to policy uncertainty.",
    "In sectors with large irreversible investment, EPU has a greater effect on:",
    "Results are robust to different definitions of investment irreversibility, lag structure, and selection of sectors.",
    "Main identification strategy: difference-in-differences approach.",
    "Exploits cross-sectoral variation in the share of irreversible investment to disentangle endogeneity and reverse causality concerns.",
    "Analysis uses firm-level micro data and sector-level comparisons.",
    "Subject: Credit default swap, Employment, GDP forecasting, Labor, Money, National accounts",
    "Keywords: Credit default swap, depreciation rate, diff-in-diff estimation, economic uncertainty, Employment, employment growth, EPU index, firm-level, GDP forecasting, Global, gross investment, investment decisions, investment irreversibility, investment model, leverage strategies, micro data, Policy uncertainty, sector-level, Turkey, WP",
    "**Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey, WP/18/272, December 2018**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey, WP/18/272, December 2018",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2018/wp18272.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2018/wp18272.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2018/wp18272.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/12/10/economic-policy-uncertainty-in-turkey-46422/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T14:31:19.520Z"
}