{
  "title": "Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 21, 2019",
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  "summary": "The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and Purpose",
      "content": "- The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future GDP growth.\n- Main strengths:\n  - Assesses the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts).\n  - Quantifies macrofinancial risks in terms of growth.\n  - Monitors the evolution of risks to economic activity over time.\n- Policy relevance:\n  - By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios to serve as a basis for preemptive action.\n- Practical content:\n  - Offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis.\n  - Draws lessons from country case studies.\n  - Discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings and Analytical Features",
      "content": "- GaR’s distinct contributions:\n  - Focus on distributional outcomes of GDP growth rather than single-point forecasts.\n  - Translation of macrofinancial conditions into growth-risk metrics.\n  - Enables monitoring of risk evolution over time for surveillance and policy use.\n- Use cases highlighted:\n  - Country case studies provide empirical lessons (details within full paper).\n  - An Excel-based GaR tool intended to support bilateral surveillance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Implications and Recommendations",
      "content": "- Policymakers can:\n  - Quantify likelihoods of adverse growth scenarios using GaR outputs.\n  - Use quantified scenario probabilities as a basis for preemptive policy action.\n- Surveillance application:\n  - GaR can be integrated into IMF country surveillance to better capture macrofinancial risks to growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords (as listed)",
      "content": "- Subject: Asset prices, Credit aggregates, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial statements, Growth-at-risk assessment, Housing prices, Money, Prices, Public financial management (PFM)\n- Keywords: accommodative financial conditions, asset price, Asset prices, Credit aggregates, financial conditions partition, Financial statements, GaR analysis, GaR approach, GaR concept, GaR framework, GaR tool, GDP growth, Global, growth distribution, Growth-at-risk assessment, house price growth, Housing prices, price of risk, scenario analysis, term premium, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/02/21/growth-at-risk-concept-and-application-in-imf-country-surveillance-46567"
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    "Authors: Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Selim A Elekdag, Phakawa Jeasakul, Romain Lafarguette, Adrian Alter, Alan Xiaochen Feng, Changchun Wang",
    "Published: February 21, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484397015.001",
    "The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future GDP growth.",
    "Main strengths:",
    "Policy relevance:",
    "Practical content:",
    "GaR’s distinct contributions:",
    "Use cases highlighted:",
    "Policymakers can:",
    "Surveillance application:",
    "Subject: Asset prices, Credit aggregates, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial statements, Growth-at-risk assessment, Housing prices, Money, Prices, Public financial management (PFM)",
    "Keywords: accommodative financial conditions, asset price, Asset prices, Credit aggregates, financial conditions partition, Financial statements, GaR analysis, GaR approach, GaR concept, GaR framework, GaR tool, GDP growth, Global, growth distribution, Growth-at-risk assessment, house price growth, Housing prices, price of risk, scenario analysis, term premium, WP",
    "**Working Paper**"
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