{
  "title": "Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development.\n- Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, the results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita.\n- The results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and scope",
      "content": "- Dataset: 158 countries.\n- Time period covered: from 1996 to 2015.\n- Paper length: 29 pages.\n- Publication series: Working Paper No. 2019/048 (Volume: 2019, Issue: 048).\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484399613.001\n- ISBN: 9781484399613\n- ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as identified by authors)",
      "content": "- Subject: Economic sectors; Education; Inflation; Informal economy; Labor; Prices; Tax incidence; Tax policy.\n- Keywords: causes of the shadow economy; GDP per capita; Global; Inflation; Informal economy; labor market; Level of Development; Nonlinearity; Shadow Economy; shadow economy data; shadow economy driver; shadow economy size; shadow economy while; shadow economy's determinant; size of the shadow economy; Tax incidence; WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Policy design to tackle issues related to the shadow economy should pay special attention to the country’s level of development.\n- Because the shadow economy exhibits a U-shaped relationship with GDP per capita, interventions may need to be tailored to where a country sits relative to the identified development threshold.\n\nIMF Working Paper by Dong Frank Wu and Friedrich Schneider, March 1, 2019.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Dong Frank Wu, Friedrich Schneider",
    "Published: March 1, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484399613.001",
    "This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development.",
    "Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, the results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita.",
    "The results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear.",
    "Dataset: 158 countries.",
    "Time period covered: from 1996 to 2015.",
    "Paper length: 29 pages.",
    "Publication series: Working Paper No. 2019/048 (Volume: 2019, Issue: 048).",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484399613.001",
    "ISBN: 9781484399613",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subject: Economic sectors; Education; Inflation; Informal economy; Labor; Prices; Tax incidence; Tax policy.",
    "Keywords: causes of the shadow economy; GDP per capita; Global; Inflation; Informal economy; labor market; Level of Development; Nonlinearity; Shadow Economy; shadow economy data; shadow economy driver; shadow economy size; shadow economy while; shadow economy's determinant; size of the shadow economy; Tax incidence; WP",
    "Policy design to tackle issues related to the shadow economy should pay special attention to the country’s level of development.",
    "Because the shadow economy exhibits a U-shaped relationship with GDP per capita, interventions may need to be tailored to where a country sits relative to the identified development threshold.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019048.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019048.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2019/wpiea2019048.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/01/nonlinearity-between-the-shadow-economy-and-level-of-development-46618/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-18T14:54:22.482Z"
}
